Apple's iPhone 18 Pro event is less than a week away. If you're not buying on launch day, and if you're reading TechShave, you probably shouldn't be, the real question is when to buy a refurbished iPhone in the weeks and months that follow.
We've written about timing last-gen flagship purchases before. This guide applies that framework specifically to the iPhone 18 cycle, using live depreciation data from our database.
The iPhone depreciation ladder (today)
Every iPhone generation occupies a different rung on the savings ladder. Here's where excellent-condition refurb medians sit right now (Sep 1, 2026):
| Generation | Age | Example model | Off MSRP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 17 | ~1 yr | iPhone 17 Pro | 6.6% | Weak |
| iPhone 16 | ~2 yr | iPhone 16 Pro | 27.4% | Weak |
| iPhone 15 | ~3 yr | iPhone 15 Pro | 42.2% | Fair |
| iPhone 14 | ~4 yr | iPhone 14 | 60.0% | Good |
| iPhone 13 | ~5 yr | iPhone 13 | 62.3% | Good |
| iPhone 12 | ~6 yr | iPhone 12 | 72.5% | Strong |
TechShave tiers: strong 75%+, good 55–74%, fair 40–54%, weak <40%.
The pattern is consistent: each year adds roughly 15–20 percentage points of savings on the refurb market. iPhone 14 crossed into good territory around year three. iPhone 15 is there now. iPhone 16 should follow after the iPhone 18 launch accelerates trade-ins.
What the iPhone 18 launch changes
When Apple announces the iPhone 18 Pro on September 9, three things happen to the refurb market:
1. Carrier and retailer inventory dumps. Unsold iPhone 17 and 16 units get discounted. Trade-in programs flood the Renewed channel with iPhone 15 and 16 units.
2. Psychological repricing. "Last year's model" becomes "two years old." Buyers who would have paid $1,026 for an iPhone 17 Pro start looking at the iPhone 16 Pro at $725 instead — pushing 17 Pro medians down.
3. iPhone 18 MSRP sets a new ceiling. If the 18 Pro starts at $1,299+, the iPhone 17 Pro at ~$900 refurbished suddenly looks like a bargain — but only after the market adjusts.
We've seen this movie before. When the iPhone 16 launched, iPhone 15 refurb prices dropped from the mid-$500s toward the low-$400s over the following quarter. The iPhone 14 went from ~45% off to 60% off within a year of the iPhone 16 launch.
Generation-by-generation timing advice
iPhone 17 (wait 3–6 months)
Currently at 5–7% off MSRP — essentially full price on the refurb market. The iPhone 17 Pro Max median (~$1,217) is actually above MSRP, likely due to tight supply and listing mix.
When to buy: Q1 2027, once iPhone 17 Pro medians drop toward 15–25% off MSRP. The iPhone 18 launch is the catalyst, but the refurb supply takes months to build.
iPhone 16 (buy around launch — or wait for 40%+)
At 24–27% off, the iPhone 16 line is approaching fair territory but not there yet. The iPhone 16 Pro at ~$725 is the most interesting pick in this generation.
When to buy: Now through Q4 2026 if you need a phone immediately — $725 for a 16 Pro is reasonable. Wait until Q1 2027 if you want 40%+ off ($600 or less), which is likely once iPhone 18 trade-ins peak.
iPhone 15 (buy now)
At 39–47% off, the iPhone 15 line is in fair-to-good territory. The iPhone 15 Pro at ~$577 and iPhone 15 at ~$454 are already among the best iPhone deals we track.
When to buy: Now. Prices may dip slightly post-iPhone 18 launch, but the iPhone 15 is four years from obsolescence and the savings are already strong. This is the generation our timing guide was written for.
iPhone 14 (buy now — or hold for sub-$300)
At 48–62% off, iPhone 14 models are in good depreciation territory. The base iPhone 14 at ~$319 is one of the cheapest ways into modern iOS.
When to buy: Now if you want a sub-$350 iPhone. Post-iPhone 18, the iPhone 14 could push toward 65–70% off — but at $319, you're already paying less than most Android mid-rangers.
iPhone 18 Pro (wait 12–18 months)
We don't have iPhone 18 data yet — it doesn't exist on the refurb market. Based on every prior generation:
- Months 0–3: No meaningful refurb supply; near-MSRP if any listings exist
- Months 3–6: First trade-ins appear; 5–15% off
- Months 6–12: Inventory builds; 15–25% off
- Months 12–24: Curve accelerates; 30–45% off
- Year 3+: 45–60% off (where iPhone 15 sits today)
What about the iPhone 18 price hike?
If the iPhone 18 Pro launches at $1,299 instead of $1,099, the refurbished ladder shifts up:
- iPhone 17 Pro "feels" cheaper relative to the new MSRP (even if dollar prices don't move much immediately)
- iPhone 16 Pro at $725 looks even better against a $1,299 benchmark
- iPhone 18 refurb savings % will look smaller for longer (higher denominator)
Higher launch MSRP doesn't change the strategy: buy one or two generations behind on the refurb market.
Compare the full ladder
Our post-launch plan
After September 9, TechShave will:
- Add iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max to the catalog with confirmed MSRP
- Monitor iPhone 17 and 16 price movements daily
- Publish updated recommendations as tiers shift
- Track the first iPhone 18 Pro Renewed listings when they appear
If you want to act now, our refurbished iPhone pick list names the best buys before the keynote. If you'd rather wait, bookmark the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro model pages — we'll show you exactly when the curve bends.
Bottom line
The iPhone 18 launch is a repricing event for every iPhone below it. Buy iPhone 15 or 14 now if you want good-to-strong depreciation today. Wait on iPhone 17 until Q1 2027. Wait on iPhone 18 until the refurb curve reaches fair territory, we'll tell you when.
